The 3,000 hit club and the 300 win club.

THE 3,000 HIT CLUB and the 300 WIN CLUB  

by Pittsburgh Pirates owner sportbanker 

PART 1 OF 4

The 3,000 hit club and the 300 win club.  Of all milestones in baseball, these two are without a doubt the most significant and elusive to achieve. They not only showcase one’s superior talent, but the ability to display dominance over a career that usually spans decades. Many elite players will emerge year-in and year-out leading the league in various statistics and winning single season MVP awards, but few will be honored with the elevated status that comes with either of these two clubs. These players are the legends of the game and locks for the Hall of Fame. Among the two clubs, there have only ever been six players in Robert E. McCabe league history that have had career success long enough to enter either club, and specifically, there have been three to enter each.

The 3,000 hit club includes 2B Alexei DaSilva (3,202 career hits, .292 BA, 18 seasons in the majors with Toronto), 1B Jose Colon (3,054 career hits, .293 BA, 20 seasons in the majors with Los Angeles), and 1B Bronson Whang (3,048 career hits, .280 BA, 18 seasons in the majors with Anaheim).

The 300 win club includes Vince Garcia (377 career wins, 2.66 ERA, 21 seasons in the majors with 5 clubs), Luther Abercrombie (355 wins, 3.27 ERA, 23 seasons in the majors with 7 clubs), and Asdrubal Palaez who just sneaked in (300 career wins, 3.17 ERA, 19 seasons in the majors with 4 clubs).

Unsurprisingly, all six of these players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Interestingly, of the batters to enter the Hall of Fame, DaSilva (4 MVPs, 9-time All Star, 5-time Silver Slugger) and Colon (1 MVP, 6-time All Star, 7-time Silver Slugger) were well-decorated superstars in their prime, while Bronson was not considered elite, but rather a very reliable above average player (no MVPs, 1-time All Star, no Silver Slugger). This only further demonstrates the allure and importance that is placed on either achievement.

But who could be next? This blog post will be split up into four parts.

·        Part 1 will analyze the career leaders in hits to try and understand what helped them achieve 3,000 hits.

·        Part 2 will detail who might have a shot at the 3,000 hit club, and how they might get there

·        Part 3 will analyze the career leaders in wins to try and understand what helped them achieve 300 wins.

·        Part 4 will detail who might have a shot at the 300 win club, and how they might get there

Disclaimer: The website doesn’t provide provide a page of career stats outside of the top 5 leaders. I’ve had to do a bit of my own research so I apologize if I’ve missed any specific candidates!

Part 1: Who is in the 3,000 Hit Club and how did they get in it?

A quick summary introduction to the approach in developing the following list of players:

·        Analyze historical stats of past players to understand performance drop-off as players reach the end of their careers

·        Derive a list of active players closest to 3,000 hits

·        Determine which attributes are the most likely indicators to future success (i.e. age, durability and health, batting ratings, makeup, ballpark, teammates, etc.)

·        Apply a non-scientific (and what will likely be a contentious) formula to predict future hits

To start, it made sense to get a good understanding of players in or near the 3,000 hit club or those close to it to see if one could find any patterns among those players. The top 5 retired leaders in career hits and some of their key ratings are below.

#1: 2B Alexei DaSilva

Career hits: 3,202

Bats: Switch

Age at 3,000^th hit: 38

Retirement age: 39

Major league seasons: 18 (entered at age 22)

Makeup rating: 78

Contact rating in prime: 71

Power rating in prime: 96

vs. LHP rating in prime: 78

vs. RHP rating in prime: 69

Batting eye rating in prime: 75

Career games played: 2,739

Career games missed*: 129

Career at-bats: 10,963

Career walks: 958

Primary ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): -2, +2, 0, 1, 1

*Missed games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season

Player analysis:

While DaSilva does not have elite contact or LHB/RHB splits, he does have elite power which helps in Rogers Centre where he played his whole career. He benefited from playing in a strong lineup and never having a serious injury, racking up ~650 at-bats per season in his first 13 years. He topped 200 hits 4 times in his career, while his best 5-year hitting run was from age 29-33 (197 hits per season). His decline in hits begun at age 35 which coincided with a steep decline in power rating (hence supporting the ballpark argument). What we can learn from DaSilva is that being a power hitter in the right ballpark can help pad the hits statistic. The downside, however, is that power ratings are one of the first to decline with age.

#2: 1B Jose Colon

Career hits: 3,054

Bats: Left

Age at 3,000^th hit: 39

Retirement age: 40

Major league seasons: 20 (entered at age 21, although was injured for the his full age 36 season)

Makeup rating: 56

Contact rating in prime: 80

Power rating in prime: 96

vs. LHP rating in prime: 77

vs. RHP rating in prime: 82

Batting eye rating in prime: 90

Career games played: 2,758

Career games missed*: 400

Career at-bats: 10,407

Career walks: 1,414

Primary ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): +2, -4, -3, -1, -1

*Missed games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season

Player analysis:

Relative to DaSilva, Colon’s ratings are more what you would have expected from a 3,000 hit club member. He had better contact and RHB split, but played in a tougher ballpark that was not as friendly to his elite power. He also benefited from being called up early, age 21, and playing in a strong lineup on a team that made the playoffs 8 out of 10 years during Colon’s prime. His lone 200+ hit year was from his MVP season at age 31, while his best 5-year hitting run was from age 27-31 (187 hits per season). Given Colon’s health rating hovered in the low 60s, it wasn’t surprising that he had at least one major injury in his career.  If not for a full-season injury at age 36, Colon very well may have been the league’s career leader in hits, having only trailed DaSilva by 148. His 164 hits at age 37 further highlights the point made earlier, that Colon did not rely on his power to get hits. His decline in power rating begun at age 33, but it did not prevent him from maintaining high hit totals, slapping singles in a single-friendly ball park until age 37. Another interesting insight is that his elite eye rating actually worked against him in the quest for 3,000. While Colon had almost exactly the same amount of plate appearances as DaSilva, he walked ~450 times more than DaSilva over his career, which prevented him from ~130 hits based on his .293 BA.

#3: 1B Bronson Whang

Career hits: 3,048

Bats: Left

Age at 3,000^th hit: 39

Retirement age: 39

Major league seasons: 18 (entered at age 22)

Makeup rating: 73

Contact rating in prime: 78

Power rating in prime: 88

vs. LHP rating in prime: 84

vs. RHP rating in prime: 73

Batting eye rating in prime: 78

Career games played: 2,777

Career games missed*: 56

Career at-bats: 10,889

Career walks: 1,060

Primary ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): 0, -2, -2, 0, 0

*Missed games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season

Player analysis:

Another power hitter. Are you beginning to see a trend? In fact, the top two leaders in career hits also lead in career HRs. Not to be completely outdone, both Whang and Ortiz (4^th in career hits) have incredible career HR numbers as well having hit 606 and 583 dingers, respectively. Bronson’s path to the 3,000 hit club looks starkly different than that of DaSilva and Colon. He never had a 200 hit season (although he came close at 198 at age 27) and his highest 5-year hitting run not only occurred much earlier in his career (age 23-27) but also at a much lower average rate, 178 hits per season, than the two aforementioned players. What differentiates him, however, was his durability and his model of consistency, especially late in age. Whang’s health rating for most of his career was 98, which helped him avoid any major injuries. Excluding his first and last major league seasons, Bronson only missed 56 regular season games in his career! Although he started losing power in his bat at age 33, Whang showed that his hand-eye coordination was among the best in the league, let alone among veterans, when he connected on 196 hits at age 38. Never really an elite player, Whang shows that slow and steady is a strategy that can pay real dividends.

#4: 1B Placido Ortiz

Career hits: 2,923

Bats: Switch

Age at 3,000^th hit: n.a.

Retirement age: 38

Major league seasons: 15 (entered at age 24)

Makeup rating: 79

Contact rating in prime: 81

Power rating in prime: 82

vs. LHP rating in prime: 63

vs. RHP rating in prime: 99

Batting eye rating in prime: 83

Career games played: 2,265

Career games missed*: 104

Career at-bats: 8,723

Career walks: 1,128

Primary ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): +2, +4, 0, +1, 0

*Missed games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season

Player analysis:

Ortiz was and still is Robert E. McCabe’s most prolific hitter. He owns the first, second, and third highest single season hits total with 241, 238 and 232 hits in his age 28, 31 and 26 seasons, respectively. If not for him being 24 when the league was founded, it is almost certain that he would be the league’s career leader in hits. Playing in an extremely base-hit friendly ballpark, Ortiz didn’t just have a great 5-year hitting run but he had an outrageous 10-year hitting run from age 24-33 where he averaged 215 hits per season. From the get-go, he has been a nightmare for opposing RHPs – In his rookie year, Ortiz had a .431 BA against righties. He continued his dominance, topping 200 hits in 8 seasons with his two most impressive arguably coming as a veteran at age 35 and 36. Ortiz has demonstrated that a player does not necessarily need to have a 18-20 year career to have a chance at achieving 3,000 hits.

#5: 1B Steve Sterns

Career hits: 2,884

Bats: Switch

Age at 3,000^th hit: n.a.

Retirement age: 39

Major league seasons: 16 (entered at age 24)

Makeup rating: 39

Contact rating in prime: 79

Power rating in prime: 75

vs. LHP rating in prime: 97

vs. RHP rating in prime: 59

Batting eye rating in prime: 78

Career games played: 2,505

Career games missed*: 33

Career at-bats: 9,693

Career walks: 995

Primary ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): 0, -1, 0, 0, +1

*Missed games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season

Player analysis:

A switch hitter who punished lefties, Sterns was another example of a player who dominated at one side of the plate. A late-bloomer, he only entered the majors at age 24 and also started off rather pedestrian. In his first three seasons, age 24-26, Sterns averaged 167 hits per year. Contrast that to four players above who averaged between 189, 175, 175, and 217 at the same age. However, what followed was a sustained period of excellence which saw Sterns achieve his best 5-year hitting run from age 27-31 (204 hits per season). Looking at Sterns’ annual hit distribution, you can see that he peaked relatively early and his career totals demonstrate a gradual decline starting around age 30. This can mainly be attributed to his low makeup rating of 39. He was able to counter-balance his decline in performance with great durability and health, both ratings which were above 90, limiting time off for rest and avoiding any major injuries (33 games missed in whole career).

So how do you get into the 3,000 hit club? Key conclusions ahead of Part 2:

·        A player does not have to be elite, but he has to be in the majors at a young age, avoid injuries, and have a long career

·        If a player was a late bloomer (i.e. rookie season age 23 or older) or has had a history of injuries, he will need to have elite hitting stats whenever he is healthy

·        Ballparks can have a significant impact to career numbers:

o   Elite power ratings can inflate career hits if the player plays in HR-friendly ballparks

o   A declining power rating does not have much of an impact to single-friendly ballparks

·        Contact rating basically needs to be 80+ to have a legitimate shot

·        Having elite ratings in at least one of vs. LHP or vs. RHP can make up for a weakness in the other

o   Otherwise, you need to be great in both

·        Elite eye ratings can work against hitters in their quest for 3,000

·        Each of the top 5 retired leaders were either LHB or switch hitters

·        Low makeup rating will emphasize importance of early age performance