THE 3,000 HIT CLUB and the 300 WIN CLUB
by Pittsburgh Pirates owner sportbanker
PART 1 OF 4
The
3,000 hit club and the 300 win club. Of all milestones in baseball, these
two are without a doubt the most significant and elusive to achieve. They not
only showcase one’s superior talent, but the ability to display dominance over
a career that usually spans decades. Many elite players will emerge year-in and
year-out leading the league in various statistics and winning single season MVP
awards, but few will be honored with the elevated status that comes with either
of these two clubs. These players are the legends of the game and locks for the
Hall of Fame. Among the two clubs, there have only ever been six players in
Robert E. McCabe league history that have had career success long enough to
enter either club, and specifically, there have been three to enter each.
The
3,000 hit club includes 2B Alexei DaSilva (3,202 career hits, .292 BA, 18
seasons in the majors with Toronto), 1B Jose Colon (3,054 career hits, .293 BA,
20 seasons in the majors with Los Angeles), and 1B Bronson Whang (3,048 career
hits, .280 BA, 18 seasons in the majors with Anaheim).
The
300 win club includes Vince Garcia (377 career wins, 2.66 ERA, 21 seasons in
the majors with 5 clubs), Luther Abercrombie (355 wins, 3.27 ERA, 23 seasons in
the majors with 7 clubs), and Asdrubal Palaez who just sneaked in (300 career
wins, 3.17 ERA, 19 seasons in the majors with 4 clubs).
Unsurprisingly,
all six of these players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Interestingly,
of the batters to enter the Hall of Fame, DaSilva (4 MVPs, 9-time All Star,
5-time Silver Slugger) and Colon (1 MVP, 6-time All Star, 7-time Silver
Slugger) were well-decorated superstars in their prime, while Bronson was not
considered elite, but rather a very reliable above average player (no MVPs,
1-time All Star, no Silver Slugger). This only further demonstrates the allure
and importance that is placed on either achievement.
But
who could be next? This blog post will be split up into four parts.
·
Part
1 will analyze the career leaders in hits to try and understand what helped
them achieve 3,000 hits.
·
Part
2 will detail who might have a shot at the 3,000 hit club, and how they might
get there
·
Part
3 will analyze the career leaders in wins to try and understand what helped
them achieve 300 wins.
·
Part
4 will detail who might have a shot at the 300 win club, and how they might get
there
Disclaimer:
The website doesn’t provide provide a page of career stats outside of the top 5
leaders. I’ve had to do a bit of my own research so I apologize if I’ve missed
any specific candidates!
Part
1: Who is in the 3,000 Hit Club and how did they get in it?
A
quick summary introduction to the approach in developing the following list of
players:
·
Analyze
historical stats of past players to understand performance drop-off as players
reach the end of their careers
·
Derive
a list of active players closest to 3,000 hits
·
Determine
which attributes are the most likely indicators to future success (i.e. age,
durability and health, batting ratings, makeup, ballpark, teammates, etc.)
·
Apply
a non-scientific (and what will likely be a contentious) formula to predict
future hits
To
start, it made sense to get a good understanding of players in or near the
3,000 hit club or those close to it to see if one could find any patterns among
those players. The top 5 retired leaders in career hits and some of their key
ratings are below.
#1:
2B Alexei DaSilva
Career
hits: 3,202
Bats:
Switch
Age
at 3,000th hit: 38
Retirement
age: 39
Major
league seasons: 18 (entered at age 22)
Makeup
rating: 78
Contact
rating in prime: 71
Power
rating in prime: 96
vs.
LHP rating in prime: 78
vs.
RHP rating in prime: 69
Batting
eye rating in prime: 75
Career
games played: 2,739
Career
games missed*: 129
Career
at-bats: 10,963
Career
walks: 958
Primary
ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): -2, +2, 0, 1, 1
*Missed
games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season
Player analysis:
While
DaSilva does not have elite contact or LHB/RHB splits, he does have elite power
which helps in Rogers Centre where he played his whole career. He benefited
from playing in a strong lineup and never having a serious injury, racking up
~650 at-bats per season in his first 13 years. He topped 200 hits 4 times in
his career, while his best 5-year hitting run was from age 29-33 (197 hits per
season). His decline in hits begun at age 35 which coincided with a steep
decline in power rating (hence supporting the ballpark argument). What we can
learn from DaSilva is that being a power hitter in the right ballpark can help
pad the hits statistic. The downside, however, is that power ratings are one of
the first to decline with age.
#2:
1B Jose Colon
Career
hits: 3,054
Bats:
Left
Age
at 3,000th hit: 39
Retirement
age: 40
Major
league seasons: 20 (entered at age 21, although was injured for the his full
age 36 season)
Makeup
rating: 56
Contact
rating in prime: 80
Power
rating in prime: 96
vs.
LHP rating in prime: 77
vs.
RHP rating in prime: 82
Batting
eye rating in prime: 90
Career
games played: 2,758
Career
games missed*: 400
Career
at-bats: 10,407
Career
walks: 1,414
Primary
ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): +2, -4, -3, -1, -1
*Missed games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season
Player
analysis:
Relative
to DaSilva, Colon’s ratings are more what you would have expected from a 3,000
hit club member. He had better contact and RHB split, but played in a tougher
ballpark that was not as friendly to his elite power. He also benefited from
being called up early, age 21, and playing in a strong lineup on a team that
made the playoffs 8 out of 10 years during Colon’s prime. His lone 200+ hit
year was from his MVP season at age 31, while his best 5-year hitting run was
from age 27-31 (187 hits per season). Given Colon’s health rating hovered in
the low 60s, it wasn’t surprising that he had at least one major injury in his
career. If not for a full-season injury at age 36, Colon very well may
have been the league’s career leader in hits, having only trailed DaSilva by
148. His 164 hits at age 37 further highlights the point made earlier, that
Colon did not rely on his power to get hits. His decline in power rating begun
at age 33, but it did not prevent him from maintaining high hit totals,
slapping singles in a single-friendly ball park until age 37. Another
interesting insight is that his elite eye rating actually worked against him in
the quest for 3,000. While Colon had almost exactly the same amount of plate
appearances as DaSilva, he walked ~450 times more than DaSilva over his career,
which prevented him from ~130 hits based on his .293 BA.
#3:
1B Bronson Whang
Career
hits: 3,048
Bats:
Left
Age
at 3,000th hit: 39
Retirement
age: 39
Major
league seasons: 18 (entered at age 22)
Makeup
rating: 73
Contact
rating in prime: 78
Power
rating in prime: 88
vs.
LHP rating in prime: 84
vs.
RHP rating in prime: 73
Batting
eye rating in prime: 78
Career
games played: 2,777
Career
games missed*: 56
Career
at-bats: 10,889
Career
walks: 1,060
Primary
ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): 0, -2, -2, 0, 0
*Missed
games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season
Player
analysis:
Another
power hitter. Are you beginning to see a trend? In fact, the top two leaders in
career hits also lead in career HRs. Not to be completely outdone, both Whang
and Ortiz (4th in career hits) have incredible career HR numbers as
well having hit 606 and 583 dingers, respectively. Bronson’s path to the 3,000
hit club looks starkly different than that of DaSilva and Colon. He never had a
200 hit season (although he came close at 198 at age 27) and his highest 5-year
hitting run not only occurred much earlier in his career (age 23-27) but also
at a much lower average rate, 178 hits per season, than the two aforementioned
players. What differentiates him, however, was his durability and his model of
consistency, especially late in age. Whang’s health rating for most of his career
was 98, which helped him avoid any major injuries. Excluding his first and last
major league seasons, Bronson only missed 56 regular season games in his
career! Although he started losing power in his bat at age 33, Whang showed
that his hand-eye coordination was among the best in the league, let alone
among veterans, when he connected on 196 hits at age 38. Never really an elite
player, Whang shows that slow and steady is a strategy that can pay real
dividends.
#4:
1B Placido Ortiz
Career
hits: 2,923
Bats:
Switch
Age
at 3,000th hit: n.a.
Retirement
age: 38
Major
league seasons: 15 (entered at age 24)
Makeup
rating: 79
Contact
rating in prime: 81
Power
rating in prime: 82
vs.
LHP rating in prime: 63
vs.
RHP rating in prime: 99
Batting
eye rating in prime: 83
Career
games played: 2,265
Career
games missed*: 104
Career
at-bats: 8,723
Career
walks: 1,128
Primary
ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): +2, +4, 0, +1, 0
*Missed
games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season
Player
analysis:
Ortiz
was and still is Robert E. McCabe’s most prolific hitter. He owns the first,
second, and third highest single season hits total with 241, 238 and 232 hits
in his age 28, 31 and 26 seasons, respectively. If not for him being 24 when the
league was founded, it is almost certain that he would be the league’s career
leader in hits. Playing in an extremely base-hit friendly ballpark, Ortiz
didn’t just have a great 5-year hitting run but he had an outrageous 10-year
hitting run from age 24-33 where he averaged 215 hits per season. From the
get-go, he has been a nightmare for opposing RHPs – In his rookie year, Ortiz
had a .431 BA against righties. He continued his dominance, topping 200 hits in
8 seasons with his two most impressive arguably coming as a veteran at age 35
and 36. Ortiz has demonstrated that a player does not necessarily need to have
a 18-20 year career to have a chance at achieving 3,000 hits.
#5:
1B Steve Sterns
Career
hits: 2,884
Bats:
Switch
Age
at 3,000th hit: n.a.
Retirement
age: 39
Major
league seasons: 16 (entered at age 24)
Makeup
rating: 39
Contact
rating in prime: 79
Power
rating in prime: 75
vs.
LHP rating in prime: 97
vs.
RHP rating in prime: 59
Batting
eye rating in prime: 78
Career
games played: 2,505
Career
games missed*: 33
Career
at-bats: 9,693
Career
walks: 995
Primary
ballpark (1B, 2B, 3B, HR Left, HR Right): 0, -1, 0, 0, +1
*Missed
games due to rest or injury, not including first or last major league season
Player
analysis:
A
switch hitter who punished lefties, Sterns was another example of a player who
dominated at one side of the plate. A late-bloomer, he only entered the majors
at age 24 and also started off rather pedestrian. In his first three seasons,
age 24-26, Sterns averaged 167 hits per year. Contrast that to four players
above who averaged between 189, 175, 175, and 217 at the same age. However,
what followed was a sustained period of excellence which saw Sterns achieve his
best 5-year hitting run from age 27-31 (204 hits per season). Looking at
Sterns’ annual hit distribution, you can see that he peaked relatively early
and his career totals demonstrate a gradual decline starting around age 30.
This can mainly be attributed to his low makeup rating of 39. He was able to
counter-balance his decline in performance with great durability and health,
both ratings which were above 90, limiting time off for rest and avoiding any
major injuries (33 games missed in whole career).
So
how do you get into the 3,000 hit club? Key conclusions ahead of Part 2:
·
A
player does not have to be elite, but he has to be in the majors at a young
age, avoid injuries, and have a long career
·
If
a player was a late bloomer (i.e. rookie season age 23 or older) or has had a
history of injuries, he will need to have elite hitting stats whenever he is
healthy
·
Ballparks
can have a significant impact to career numbers:
o
Elite
power ratings can inflate career hits if the player plays in HR-friendly
ballparks
o
A
declining power rating does not have much of an impact to single-friendly
ballparks
·
Contact
rating basically needs to be 80+ to have a legitimate shot
·
Having
elite ratings in at least one of vs. LHP or vs. RHP can make up for a weakness
in the other
o
Otherwise,
you need to be great in both
·
Elite
eye ratings can work against hitters in their quest for 3,000
·
Each
of the top 5 retired leaders were either LHB or switch hitters
·
Low
makeup rating will emphasize importance of early age performance
Cincinnati, Ohio (McC.com) - Welcome to another season in the Robert E. McCabe World
of Major League Baseball. As you all know it is a tradition for McCabe Magazine
to kick off the season with the awarding of the McCabe Magazine Organization/Front
Office of the Year award. This year our season 38 Owner of the Year is a back
to back recipient; mark3313 of the Seattle
Mariners. The Seattle owner won the award in season 37 with 516 total wins. This
season mark3313 topped that total by 15 with a total of 531 organizational wins
and 215 playoff bonus points. 
